Vanessa Kade (@VanessaKade) | 2 months ago

Here's a hand where I almost folded the river to this guy, but there were a couple problems with his story.
It's possible he's betting the flop on a diamond draw, but more likely it's a K, or a weaker J. I don't expect him to have KJ or a set of 8, because he would have hit the flop hard enough that when I check in front of him, he would be scared I might just fold, plus I'm already holding a J. When he shoves the river, it's possible he turned the flush, but again, I'm holding the Ad, so if I'm giving him credit for a decent preflop hand, that rules out some options and means the best thing he could have for a flush is QTdd.
The reason it was almost a fold is that by check-calling the flop, and then leading out the turn, I've already made it look like I have a J or a flush, and he should be scared I hold trips unless he CAN actually beat it and does want me to call. Additionally, he cut out a min raise before deciding to shove.
Strangely we're probably more scared of something like suited connectors that he tried to buy it on the flop with and hit a flush on the turn, or something weird like J8. With all the factors in both directions it's a bit borderline, but ultimately the raise on the river is big enough that it looks like he doesn't want a call, unless, again, he's correctly put us on a J and can actually beat us.
I ended up calling after a brief pause, deciding that the fact I'm holding the Ad was enough to tip the scales, and he says, "Nice call sweetheart, I just have a K."